According to new data just out, New South Wales, and in particular south-west Sydney is geared up for a nursing crisis with what has been described as “catastrophic” shortage of staff with the state’s 70,000 full time-staff unable to satisfy predicted patient demand. And, this shortfall is expected to worsen over the coming decade, with current modelling suggesting that the estimated 74,000 full-time registered nurses and midwives working by 2030 will fall far short of the 82,000 that will be urgently required to meet current trends. Already in 2018, NSW will need an additional 2,000 full-time enrolled nurses to meet current demand, and 8,000 fewer nurses by 2030 is an unwelcome and grim forecast for the many hospitals and aged-care centres who rely on their services. The current workforce of 9,000 full-time staff will plummet to 7,500 by 2030, while at the same time demand will sky-rocket to about 13,000.

DEFICIT OF RECRUITS AND AGEING WORKFORCE TO BLAME

An ageing demographic, combined with an ageing workforce will lead to a critical shortage of nursing staff, and it is of the upmost importance for the industry to train and develop the skills of younger nurses in an effort to retain them. It has been suggested that residents of south-west Sydney might just hope to avoid getting sick as this area will bear the brunt of the modelled shortages. Here the risk of a shortfall of enrolled nurses is described on a bushfire-style chart in the documents as “catastrophic”. Current modelling suggests that south-west Sydney will require the service of around 600 enrolled nurses in 2030, however only 150 are predicted to be available. The risk of a shortfall of enrolled nurses for Sydney, rural NSW, the Mid-North Coast and the entire Metro NSW public sector is charted as a major risk, only one step down from catastrophic. NSW public servants suggest the data models a “worst-case scenario”, and expect new policies currently in place to mitigate the crisis. source: ABC NEWS